When is wind most nerve-wracking?

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Tri Phan, Kyle Langan

2025

“Anytime you have the winds coming with no rain, it’s very nerve-wracking.”

– Cal Fire Capt. Matt McKenzie (referencing Paradise, CA)

Traits of wildfires, urban conflagrations

Uncertainty

When will the next wildfire in California happen?

Gains from stressors

A spark, a bolt of lightning, a gust of wind, a heat wave

Can cause chaos

Loss of life, property

Can cause disorder, turmoil

Response may be uncoordinated.

Variability

Temperature.

Imperfect, incomplete knowledge

Precise locations of future wildfire starting points and ensuing paths

Randomness

Wind, heat, humidity levels

Chance

The likelihood of a wildfire is unknown. Preventing forest fires from taking place ‘to be safe’ worsens the big one. [1]

Time

Wildfires may benefit from time, and grow with a passing day; the Chinchaga Fire burned from June to October.

Volatility

Example: California has hot, dry winds; when these winds are combined with loaded fuels, the culmination is an environment that resembles Australia’s bushfire-prone landscape. Winters’ precipitation might be fun for skiers and snowboarders in Mammoth, who probably remember the white 2022-2023 season vividly. However, these snow-water content levels lead to intense vegetation growth, resulting in more fuel for fire to burn later. High fuel loads for Santa Ana Wind Season (October to February) might keep a Californian up and night. The Diablo Wind Season runs similar course: Fall to Spring.

Ember Awareness

Direct flames: Actual flame coming into direct contact with a building/combustible material. [2]

*Airborne embers: Flaming airborne embers can travel more than a mile from an active wildfire. More than half of wildland interface home ignitions are from flaming embers landing on roofs/objects. [3]

Radiant heat: A wildfire can raise the temperature of nearby combustible materials to the point of ignition. [4]

*An adjacent forest could not burn, while a home does.

LAFD Perspective

In California, The Station Fire on the slopes of Mount Wilson is one of many examples — there are more areas prone to fire in Southern California than not. An exhaustive list of fire-prone areas would be quite long.  But what to do in the event of a wildfire? Blake Robbins spent 16 years as a firefighter paramedic. He fought The Station Fire. Currently, he is a Fire Marshall for LAX. Blake saw the beginning and end of life, as 911 emergencies integrate LA firefighters with EMT/Paramedic operations: LAFD’s responses may range from wildfires, to delivering babies, to responses of overdoses. Mr. Robbins cycled through areas needing mitigation: Ventura, Elysian Park, Griffith Park, Trabuco Canyon, Laguna Canyon. He highlighted Ventura first but noted that Elysian and Griffith parks experience the highest frequency he saw.

Don’t be optimistic

Blake put it simply: In the event of a wildfire, don’t sit in place and don’t be optimistic. He also noted the following: Listen to evacuation orders; have an exit plan (strategy to GO without second guesses); then have a backup plan. He mentioned that winds can change severely and rapidly. A fire can benefit from this randomness.

Naive intervention

There is investment on fire suppression via air fleet – it is a small portion of the budget, less than 5%. But this funding is like Cal Fire preparing as if nature’s fires are a warzone enemy to tactically intervene and suppress. Instead, a more effective strategy is defensible space construction and lessened fragility in the way communities prepare. This may include not re-building in places that keep burning. “This area has burned over and over again and maybe we shouldn’t have [houses] there.” – Bettina Boxall.

Boxall is like a lighthouse, guiding us away from a rocky shore – a shore sometimes lacking reason and practicality on this matter. She also said: “A fire-industrial complex has developed, funneling taxpayer money to private businesses that provide federal firefighters with an astounding array of often very expensive services. My colleague and I were also struck by the degree to which politics plays a role in firefighting. We documented a number of instances in which commanders called in costly aircraft at the behest of politicians – when the commanders knew the tankers or helicopters would not be effective.” – Bettina Boxall, 2009 [5]. Conversely, the defensible space construction strategy is working quite well.

Consider this need to “do something.” [6]

Communication: “Red Flag Warning”

National Weather Services’ Red Flag Warnings indicate warm temperatures, very low humidities, and stronger winds, that can combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger.

Some thought Alberta’s blaze was the “result of an atomic war,” or “the end of the world”

Ed Struzik told a story of a Western Canada wildfire so monstrous that the “thickness of the smoke led some people in Ontario to believe that an atomic bomb had exploded and that the western world was at war.” [7] Toronto had to turn on street lights at noon; Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Fort Erie and New York turned lights on at baseball stadiums to illuminate mid-afternoon ball games in the Summer of 1950. [8] There was heat so intense in spots that it changes the chemistry of the soil to the point where trees did not regenerate. [9]

///

Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM

Kyle Langan

References

[1] Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile. Random House.

[2-4] Smith, Ed, Sistare, Sonya. (2009) “Be Ember Aware!”. University of Nevada, Reno. <https://naes.agnt.unr.edu/PMS/Pubs/1510_2005_89.pdf>

[5] Bettina Boxall ’74 receives Pulitzer prize – the honors college – university of Maine. The Honors College. (2009, August 26). https://honors.umaine.edu/2009/08/26/bettina-boxall-74-receives-pulitzer/

[6] Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile. Random House.

[7-9] Struzik, Ed. (2011, May 22). “1950 monster fire burned its way into history.” edmontonjournal.com

Learning from structure fires

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This West Warwick, Rhode Island tragedy was one of the deadliest nightclub fires of all time. For concert venue hosts, this was an example of what not to do.

Reaction

What to do? Overreact — so as to innovate fire safety measures

  • Install a properly functioning sprinkler system.
  • The level of safety provided is not the result of any single safety system or feature, but rather is achieved through the combination of multiple safeguards that are provided.
  • NFPA code provisions mandate that a considerable number of safety systems and features be present in order to keep everyone safe should an unwanted fire occur.

What not to do?

  • The building that hosted The Station was not protected with any sprinkler system.
  • Fires in assembly occupancies have shown to be some of the most deadly — when the proper features, systems and construction materials were not present.
  • One single entrance/exit for a large number of people in one main space.

Safety Tips

Download the safety tip sheet.

Before you enter

  • Take a good look. Does the building appear to be in a condition that makes you feel comfortable? Is the main entrance wide and does it open outward to allow easy exit? Is the outside area clear of materials stored against the building or blocking exits?
  • Have a communication plan. Identify a relative or friend to contact in case of emergency and you are separated from family or friends.
  • Plan a meeting place. Pick a meeting place outside to meet family or friends with whom you are attending the function. If there is an emergency, be sure to meet them there.

When you enter

  • Locate exits immediately. When you enter a building you should look for all available exits. Some exits may be in front and some in back of you. Be prepared to use your closest exit. You may not be able to use the main exit.
  • Check for clear exit paths. Make sure aisles are wide enough and not obstructed by chairs or furniture. Check to make sure your exit door is not blocked or chained. If there are not at least two exits or exit paths are blocked, report the violation to management and leave the building if it is not immediately addressed. Call the local fire marshal to register a complaint.
  • Do you feel safe? Does the building appear to be overcrowded? Are there fire sources such as candles burning, cigarettes or cigars burning, pyrotechnics, or other heat sources that may make you feel unsafe? Are there safety systems in place such as alternative exits, sprinklers, and smoke alarms? Ask the management for clarification on your concerns. If you do not feel safe in the building, leave immediately.

During an emergency

  • React immediately. If an alarm sounds, you see smoke or fire, or other unusual disturbance immediately exit the building in an orderly fashion.
  • Get out, stay out! Once you have escaped, stay out. Under no circumstances should you ever go back into a burning building. Let trained firefighters conduct rescue operations.

Cited directly from nfpa.org

https://www.nfpa.org/about-nfpa: National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) has been helping to solve some of the planet’s toughest safety problems for more than 125 years. To remain relevant for over a century as a knowledge and information organization, we’ve continually evolved our scope of expertise—from fire prevention, wildfire preparedness, and electrical safety to hazardous materials, community risk reduction, and public safety.

The 10 deadliest nightclub fires in world history

  • Cocoanut Grove nightclub, Boston, MA
    • November 28, 1942
    • Deaths: 492
  • Disco/dance hall, Luoyang, China.
    • December 25, 2000
    • Deaths: 309
  • KISS nightclub, Santa Maria, Brazil
    • January 27, 2013
    • Deaths: 242
  • Rhythm Club dance hall, Natchez, MS
    • April 23, 1940
    • Deaths: 207
  • Cromagnon Republic club, Buenos Aires, Argentina
    • December 30, 2004
    • Deaths: 194
  • Beverly Hills Supper Club, Southgate, KY
    • May 28, 1977
    • Deaths: 165
  • Ozone Disco Club, Quezon City, Philippines
    • March 18, 1996
    • Deaths: 160
  • Lame Horse Nightclub, Perm, Russia
    • December 5, 2009
    • Deaths: 154
  • Club Cinq, St. Laurent du Pont, France
    • November 20, 1971
    • Deaths: 143
  • The Station nightclub, W. Warwick, RI
    • February 20, 2003
    • Deaths: 100

NFPA files on major fire incidents. <https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/building-and-life-safety/nightclubs-assembly-occupancies#deadliest-fires>

“Disclaimer: Death tolls are based on information in NFPA’s records. Please contact us at research@nfpa.org to provide any updated information.

Stressors in desiccated regions

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Stressors in desiccated regions

Kyle Langan, 2025

Dry winds

If you’ve ever lived in a place prone to wildfires, the sounds of strong wind absent rain may keep you up at night.

Scenario: Record-breaking snow water contents in the winter…

Those living in California probably experienced or at least heard about the epic skiing conditions at Mammoth mountain in early 2023.

That type of 1 in 100+ year precipitation grows vegetation intensely and increases the total amount of combustible material, or fuel load. After the intense precipitation, then growth, a period of severe drought conditions goes on for 2 years.

During the prolonged drought, a storm develops offshore, paired with a high pressure center, which can bring high-velocity winds. Hot, dry winds are stressors for areas like British Columbia, the Southwestern U.S., and Australia. So, why should Western Canadians, Californians and Australians read this essay? Risk mitigation. One of those readers’ priorities is transferring risk of fire to an insurer. Caution, however: property owner may find that purchasing fire insurance through brother-in-law-State-Farm-agent may present issues at the time of the fire and ensuing insurance claim payout. And sadly for purchasers, they can’t buy more fire insurance once the building starts burning.

So, you can’t predict a particular year that would have major wildfires. Purchasers must approach insurance like a yearly, monthly or even daily mitigation strategy. This means if today you buy $500,000 of new furniture, the first person you should brag about it to is your insurance broker. The broker will initiate a change with their underwriter partner and you will pay some additional premium through an endorsement to the policy. But the insurance is an expense until it’s not.

Tohoku

For example, if someone bought earthquake insurance for a commercial building, an earthquake insurance expert will set the purchaser up with a contract that they could buy for 500 years in a row, and if there were zero earthquakes until the 501st year, the insurance contract still would have been worth it, to be indemnified back to whole, based on the benefit of the insurance coverage versus the cost (premium) of the risk transfer. Insurance should be a fraction of a penny, or a penny at the most. That is, the payoff is 100-1. How is the insurance impacting your portfolio during a wind threat? The question I ask myself before purchasing insurance is: Am I better off because of it? Will this help me or make me worse off? An example of insurance likely hurting you is buying collision coverage for $12,000 in annual premium on a car that is worth $11,000. After only 1 year, the insurance is now hurting you, and alternative options should be considered by the purchaser (extreme example: in most cases, this is not how the cost takes shape).

A better example for a payoff 100-1 or greater is going back to the earthquake example. If the replacement cost valuation of a commercial building is $30,000,000, that is the building’s exposure level. If the building suffered a catastrophic loss from a Tohoku-like earthquake, the stakeholder’s successful risk transfer will prove to be true mitigation at the time of the loss. An annual premium of $300,000 would be the minimum standard for a valid earthquake insurance solution. Except maybe Goldman Sachs, most of us probably do not have a time horizon for risk mitigation more than 100 years.

However, naturally, we would love an even better cost-benefit. So, if $60,000 in annual premium? Example of a 500-1 payoff before considering the deductible.

Stressor: Gusty conditions paired with low humidity levels

Santa Ana Season starts in October, on average, and goes through January, sometimes getting into the start of February. [2] Even in winter time, CA can remain dry, windy, and sometimes hot. On their SoundCloud podcast, Paul Pastelok and Joe Lundberg provide continuous guidance for concern of winds lining up for an offshore presence. [3]

Lightning can naturally ignite fires (ex: August 2020 California lightning siege. Santa Ana Winds can then fan flames of blazes and cause them to evolve rapidly into massive wildfires. However, nearly 90% of fires are caused by humans in some way (ex: electricity power lines), and due to this fact, predicting wildfire tolls and acreage is very difficult. [8]

The January 2025 conditions in California resembled the conditions leading up to the 1980 South Australian bushfires: Late February 1980 saw a virtually rainless summer, parlayed with a very wet spring in 1979 prior to the drought conditions. Then 3 years later, February 16th, 1983 was a disaster in South Australia — half a million acres or 2,080 km2  burned, killing 75 people. [9]

Areas that need strategic preparation

Western Canada.

The interior Northwest and the northern Rockies face wildfire risk: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Northern California and northern Nevada may confront exposures because fires are always reasonably expected in times like June or the first half of July. However, this “region’s peak of wildfire activity” is usually July into early September.” [10] Many of these areas likely already have scheduled “prescribed burns,” or intentional power outages, especially in conditions of severe drought and extreme weather like Australia can experience.

New Jersey forests.

The Florida Peninsula can experience brush fires in the spring with any drier-than-average conditions. [11]

Alaska has led the country in wildfire activity in past years, with nearly twice the amount of land in Delaware burned in 2022 from wildfires. However, a fire season is more defined on the impact to the public and not by the acreage burned, according to Pastelok. There are no better examples of this sentiment than the Lahaina fire in 2023 or the 2018 wildfire season when the Camp Fire killed 85 people in Paradise, CA.

References

Danielle, M. (2025, January 13). Death toll climbs to 24 and thousands of structures destroyed in California wildfires. Palisades Fire in California rages out of control. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/palisades-fire-in-california-rages-out-of-control/1731028

Glenny, A. (2025, January 13). Intense Santa Ana winds to resume early this week around Los Angeles. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/intense-santa-ana-winds-to-resume-early-this-week-around-los-angeles/1732922

[1-3]

Going Long With Paul and Joe

[2, 6-8]

Lada, B. (2023, April 12). AccuWeather’s 2023 US wildfire forecast. Retrieved from https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2023-us-wildfire-forecast

[9]

“About Ash Wednesday”. Country Fire Authority Victoria, Australia. Archived from the original on 23 March 2008.

Bureau of Meteorology. “Climate Education: Ash Wednesday, February 1983”. Australian Government. Archived from the original on 8 August 2013. 

[10-11]

Term of the week: Fuel load. interfire.org. Retrieved from https://www.interfire.org/

What is a Nuclear Verdict? Employment Practices Loss Example

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Edited August 9th, 2024 by Kyle Langan

Are employers held accountable for their wrongful acts? Upon litigation, businesses have frequently encountered juries that are sympathetic to plaintiffs, making them more susceptible to nuclear verdicts ($10 million or more) [1].

QUESTION: What could have prevented or reduced the severity of this nuclear verdict example?

Example: Microsoft’s unfair employment practices

Location: California

Wrongful acts: Lower monetary bonuses and unfavorable performance reviews resulted in cases of pregnancy, a disability, or other family and medical reasons spanning 2017-2020 [2]

Settlement: $14,425,000 [3]

The settlement also required Microsoft to implement a series of proactive measures to help minimize similar incidents going forward [4]

Covered acts on an EPL policy: Discrimination; Retaliation [5]

ANSWER: Compliance risk mitigation. To ensure compliance, workplace policies should be regularly assessed to maintain compliance with fair employment laws and any other applicable federal, state, and local regulations.

i.e. Compliance with: The Family Leave and Medical Act (FMLA), California Family Rights Act (CFRA) Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (Title VII) and the Fair Employment Housing Act (FEHA), The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA)

Mitigation goals:

  • Purchase Employment Practices Liability Insurance
  • Establishing an employee handbook that includes appropriate policies
  • Encouraging employees to report all instances of discrimination and retaliation
  • Taking all reports of discrimination and retaliation seriously by following documented investigation and response protocols
  • Educating managers and supervisors on what constitutes retaliation and making it clear that such behavior is prohibited
  • Documenting all complaints, evaluations and situations that result in an employee’s termination

Sample policy language: Philadelphia

DEFINITIONS
A. Employment Practice Act means any actual or alleged:
1. wrongful dismissal, discharge, or termination of employment;
2. breach of a written or oral employment contract or implied employment contract;
3. employment related misrepresentation;
4. wrongful failure to promote;
5. violation of employment discrimination laws (including harassment);
6. wrongful deprivation of a career opportunity;
7. employment related wrongful discipline;
8. negligent employee evaluation;
9. employment related invasion of privacy;
10. employment related defamation (including libel and slander);
11. sexual or workplace harassment of any kind;
12. constructive discharge of employment;
13. employment related Retaliation;
14. employment related humiliation;
15. wrongful demotion;
16. negligent reassignment;
17. violation of any federal, state, or local civil rights laws;

Solely with respect to any Claim brought by or on behalf of any Third Party, Employment Practice Act means any actual or alleged wrongful failure to employ, discrimination, sexual harassment or violation of such Third Party’s civil rights in relation to such wrongful failure to employ, discrimination or sexual harassment, whether direct, indirect, or unintentional, committed by an Individual Insured in his/her capacity as an Individual Insured or by the Private Company.

References

[1] — [5]

Civil Rights Department, State of California (n.d.). Civil Rights Department reaches $14.4 million settlement with Microsoft over alleged parental and disability leave discrimination. CRD. https://calcivilrights.ca.gov/2024/07/03/civil-rights-department-reaches-14-4-million-settlement-with-microsoft-over-alleged-parental-and-disability-leave-discrimination/

 

Risk Insight: Reduce Your Exposures During Work Events

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Throughout the year your company might hold different events for various reasons. In the Winter  Companies big and small host Holiday parties for their hard-working employees. These guidelines will help make sure that your company and its employees have both a fun and safe holiday event.

At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure that you are covered in any instance, including during your work events. To speak with a member of the Conrey Team, call (877) 450-1872 or contact us and experience The Conrey Difference for yourself

The Importance of Cyber Insurance

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When cyber attacks like data breaches and hacks occur, they can have devastating results. Organizations have to deal with countless headaches, like business disruptions, lost revenue and litigation. Cyber liability insurance is now an essential component of any business’s risk management program as it provides a number of unique benefits. Watch this video to learn more.

At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure that you are covered in any instance, including if you have cyber attack. To speak with a member of the Conrey Team, call (877) 450-1872 or contact us and experience The Conrey Difference for yourself.

Cyber Criminals: Who They Are and What Motivates Them

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Whether you process payments or store sensitive customer data, chances are cyber criminals have already placed a target on your organization. And while we often think cyber criminals are bunkered up in some basement, the truth is that attackers are much more sophisticated. This video examines the most common threats to a business, detailing the types of cyber criminals and what they’re after.

At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure that you know the dangers of cyber criminals. To speak with a member of the Conrey Team, call (877) 450-1872 or contact us and experience The Conrey Difference for yourself.

Protecting Your Business From a Data Breach

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Even the most secure organizations are at risk of a data breach. It can often take days or even months for a company to discover its data has been compromised. And, when it comes to preventing or responding to a data breach, having a plan and security measures in place is crucial. This video examines some key data security strategies to ensure your organization is doing all it can to protect itself from cyber criminals.

At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure that you know the risks of a data breach. To speak with a member of the Conrey Team, call (877) 450-1872 or contact us and experience The Conrey Difference for yourself.

Professional Liability Insurance

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Protect yourself and your business from claims not covered by commercial general liability coverage. If you provide expert advice or services you should consider professional liability insurance. Professionals who are architects, home inspectors, lawyers, physicians, real estate brokers and accountants can benefit from this type of coverage. Read this coverage insight to learn more about what professional liability insurance covers and how it can help your company go above what general liability coverage does.

At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure that you have all the knowledge and help you need so your business is sufficiently covered. To speak with a member of the Conrey Team about professional liability insurance, call (877) 450-1872 or contact us and experience The Conrey Difference for yourself.

How to protect your Company When Disciplining or Terminating an Employee

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Disciplining or terminating an employee brings about unwanted stress, but it can also open your business to a list of liability exposures. It is easy to believe that once an employee has received a corrective warning or has been terminated there will no longer be a problem. This is not always the case. There are many types of claims that an employee can file against you or your company if they feel they have been wrongly disciplined or terminated. But, there are ways to help prevent a claim if you are aware of the risks.

It is essential to clearly define your company expectations and individual roles for employees in a handbook which employees should sign. Conduct periodic performance reviews. The most important strategy to help prevent a lawsuit is to keep a paper trail for every employee and include corrective actions and performance reviews. Never embarrass a terminated employee by bringing in security to escort unless they were terminated for theft or a violent offense. Institute a zero-tolerance policy against discrimination, drug abuse and harassment. Also, establish an “open door” policy in which employees can report incidents without the fear of retaliation.

Add another line of defense with Employment Practices Liability Insurance. Even if you or your company are not found guilty of wrongful termination or discipline, lawsuits can be expensive, even devastating. EPL insurance can help offset some of these costs.

To learn more about ways to protect your business before disciplining or terminating an employee, read this informative article. At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure your business is properly protected against potential risks. That’s The Conrey Difference. Give us a call at 877-450-1872 or visit our website.