When is wind most nerve-wracking?

in , , ,

“Anytime you have the winds coming with no rain, it’s very nerve-wracking.”

– Cal Fire Capt. Matt McKenzie (referencing Paradise, CA)

Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM, Kyle Langan

2025

Traits of wildfires, urban conflagrations

Uncertainty

When will the next wildfire in California happen?

Gains from stressors

A spark, a bolt of lightning, a gust of wind, a heat wave

Can cause chaos

Loss of life, property

Can cause disorder, turmoil

Response may be uncoordinated.

Variability

Temperature; heat so intense in spots that it changes the chemistry of the soil to the point where trees do not regenerate. [1]

Imperfect, incomplete knowledge

Precise locations of future wildfire starting points and ensuing paths

Randomness

Wind, heat, humidity levels

Chance

The likelihood of a wildfire is unknown. Preventing forest fires from taking place ‘to be safe’ worsens the big one. [2]

Time

Wildfires may benefit from time, and get stronger with a passing day. Ex: 1950 blaze in British Columbia burned for 222 days. [3]

Volatility

Example: California has hot, dry winds; when these winds are combined with loaded fuels, the culmination is an environment that resembles Australia’s bushfire-prone landscape. Winters’ precipitation may be fun for skiers and snowboarders in Mammoth, who probably remember the white 2022-2023 season vividly. However, these snow-water content levels loaded the ammunition of intense vegetation growth during the springs and summers, resulting in more fuel for fires later (the gun). High fuel load for Santa Ana Wind Season (October to February) might keep a Californian up and night. Diablo Wind Season runs similar course: ~ Fall to Spring.

Ember Awareness

Direct flames: Actual flame coming into direct contact with a building/combustible material. (Smith, 2009)

*Airborne embers: Flaming airborne embers can travel more than a mile from an active wildfire. More than half of wildland interface home ignitions are from flaming embers landing on roofs/objects. (Smith, 2009)

Radiant heat: A wildfire can raise the temperature of nearby combustible materials to the point of ignition. (Smith, 2009)

*An adjacent forest could not burn, while a home does.

First Published May, 2023 by Tri Phan (CPCU, ARM)

LAFD Perspective

In California, The Station Fire on the slopes of Mount Wilson one of many examples — there are more areas prone to fire in Southern California than not. A exhaustive list of fire-prone areas would be redundant. Chances are that if you are near an area prone to wildfires, you already know it. But what to do in the event of a wildfire? To gain perspective, I interviewed Blake Robbins, of the LAFD — he spent 16 years as a firefighter paramedic. He fought The Station Fire. Currently, he is Fire Marshall for LAX.

Blake saw the beginning and end of life, as 911 emergencies integrate LA firefighters with EMT/Paramedic operations: LAFD’s responses may range from wildfires to delivering babies to responses of overdoses.

Mr. Robbins still kindly cycled through areas needing mitigation: Ventura, Elysian Park, Griffith Park, Trabuco Canyon, Laguna Canyon. He highlighted Ventura first but noted that Elysian and Griffith parks experience the highest frequency he saw.

Don’t be optimistic

Blake put it simply: In the event of a wildfire, don’t sit in place and don’t be optimistic. He also noted the following: Listen to evacuation orders; have an exit plan (strategy to GO without second guesses); then have a backup plan; finally, winds can change.*

*uncertainty, randomness

Communication: “Red Flag Warning”

National Weather Services’ Red Flag Warnings indicate warm temperatures, very low humidities, and stronger winds, that can combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger.

There is investment of taxpayer dollars on fire suppression (Air fleet) – it is only roughly 3% funding  but Cal Fire is preparing as if nature’s fires are a warzone enemy to tactically intervene and suppress fires. Instead a more effective strategy is defensible space construction and antifragility in the way communities prepare. Naive intervention

Bettina Boxall

“This area has burned over and over again and maybe we shouldn’t have [houses] there.” Fighting wildfires is a cash cow for some. “A fire-industrial complex has developed, funneling taxpayer money to private businesses that provide federal firefighters with an astounding array of often very expensive services. My colleague and I were also struck by the degree to which politics plays a role in firefighting. We documented a number of instances in which commanders called in costly aircraft at the behest of politicians–when the commanders knew the tankers or helicopters would not be effective.” – Bettina Boxall, 2009.

Wildfire Zones in Western U.S.

The interior Northwest, northern Rockies and Alaska can all face wildfire potential; these areas need strategic preparation. [5]

Some thought Alberta’s blaze was the “result of an atomic war,” or “the end of the world”

Ed Struzik told a story of a Western Canada wildfire so monstrous that the “thickness of the smoke led some people in Ontario to believe that an atomic bomb had exploded and that the western world was at war.” [6] Toronto had to turn on street lights at noon; Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Fort Erie and New York turned lights on at baseball stadiums to illuminate mid-afternoon ball games in the Summer of 1950. [7]

///

Written 2023 – 2025 by

Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM

Kyle Langan

References

APA

Myslivy, Jennifer. (2022, July 14) “BLM AND MAVERIK PARTNER TO PREVENT WILDFIRES.” <https://www.blm.gov/blog/2022-07-14/blm-and-maverik-partner-prevent-wildfires>

Smith, Ed, Sistare, Sonya. (2009) “Be Ember Aware!”. University of Nevada, Reno. <https://naes.agnt.unr.edu/PMS/Pubs/1510_2005_89.pdf>

Chicago

[1, 3, 6-7]

Struzik, Ed. (2011, May 22). “1950 monster fire burned its way into history.” edmontonjournal.com

[2]

Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile. Random House.

[4]

Bettina Boxall ’74 receives Pulitzer prize – the honors college – university of Maine. The Honors College. (2009, August 26). https://honors.umaine.edu/2009/08/26/bettina-boxall-74-receives-pulitzer/

Los Angeles Times. (2017, December 28). An explosive wildfire season drives firefighting costs to record levels. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wildfire-costs-20171228-story.html

Term of the week: Fuel load. interfire.org. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.interfire.org/

[5]

Lada, B. (2023, April 12). AccuWeather’s 2023 US wildfire forecast. Retrieved from https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2023-us-wildfire-forecast/1510132ntonjournal.com

Learning from structure fires

in , , ,

This West Warwick, Rhode Island tragedy was one of the deadliest nightclub fires of all time. For concert venue hosts, this was an example of what not to do.

Reaction

What to do? Overreact — so as to innovate fire safety measures

  • Install a properly functioning sprinkler system.
  • The level of safety provided is not the result of any single safety system or feature, but rather is achieved through the combination of multiple safeguards that are provided.
  • NFPA code provisions mandate that a considerable number of safety systems and features be present in order to keep everyone safe should an unwanted fire occur.

What not to do?

  • The building that hosted The Station was not protected with any sprinkler system.
  • Fires in assembly occupancies have shown to be some of the most deadly — when the proper features, systems and construction materials were not present.
  • One single entrance/exit for a large number of people in one main space.

Safety Tips

Download the safety tip sheet.

Before you enter

  • Take a good look. Does the building appear to be in a condition that makes you feel comfortable? Is the main entrance wide and does it open outward to allow easy exit? Is the outside area clear of materials stored against the building or blocking exits?
  • Have a communication plan. Identify a relative or friend to contact in case of emergency and you are separated from family or friends.
  • Plan a meeting place. Pick a meeting place outside to meet family or friends with whom you are attending the function. If there is an emergency, be sure to meet them there.

When you enter

  • Locate exits immediately. When you enter a building you should look for all available exits. Some exits may be in front and some in back of you. Be prepared to use your closest exit. You may not be able to use the main exit.
  • Check for clear exit paths. Make sure aisles are wide enough and not obstructed by chairs or furniture. Check to make sure your exit door is not blocked or chained. If there are not at least two exits or exit paths are blocked, report the violation to management and leave the building if it is not immediately addressed. Call the local fire marshal to register a complaint.
  • Do you feel safe? Does the building appear to be overcrowded? Are there fire sources such as candles burning, cigarettes or cigars burning, pyrotechnics, or other heat sources that may make you feel unsafe? Are there safety systems in place such as alternative exits, sprinklers, and smoke alarms? Ask the management for clarification on your concerns. If you do not feel safe in the building, leave immediately.

During an emergency

  • React immediately. If an alarm sounds, you see smoke or fire, or other unusual disturbance immediately exit the building in an orderly fashion.
  • Get out, stay out! Once you have escaped, stay out. Under no circumstances should you ever go back into a burning building. Let trained firefighters conduct rescue operations.

Cited directly from nfpa.org

https://www.nfpa.org/about-nfpa: National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) has been helping to solve some of the planet’s toughest safety problems for more than 125 years. To remain relevant for over a century as a knowledge and information organization, we’ve continually evolved our scope of expertise—from fire prevention, wildfire preparedness, and electrical safety to hazardous materials, community risk reduction, and public safety.

The 10 deadliest nightclub fires in world history

  • Cocoanut Grove nightclub, Boston, MA
    • November 28, 1942
    • Deaths: 492
  • Disco/dance hall, Luoyang, China.
    • December 25, 2000
    • Deaths: 309
  • KISS nightclub, Santa Maria, Brazil
    • January 27, 2013
    • Deaths: 242
  • Rhythm Club dance hall, Natchez, MS
    • April 23, 1940
    • Deaths: 207
  • Cromagnon Republic club, Buenos Aires, Argentina
    • December 30, 2004
    • Deaths: 194
  • Beverly Hills Supper Club, Southgate, KY
    • May 28, 1977
    • Deaths: 165
  • Ozone Disco Club, Quezon City, Philippines
    • March 18, 1996
    • Deaths: 160
  • Lame Horse Nightclub, Perm, Russia
    • December 5, 2009
    • Deaths: 154
  • Club Cinq, St. Laurent du Pont, France
    • November 20, 1971
    • Deaths: 143
  • The Station nightclub, W. Warwick, RI
    • February 20, 2003
    • Deaths: 100

NFPA files on major fire incidents. <https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/building-and-life-safety/nightclubs-assembly-occupancies#deadliest-fires>

“Disclaimer: Death tolls are based on information in NFPA’s records. Please contact us at research@nfpa.org to provide any updated information.

Stressors in desiccated regions

in , , ,

Stressors in desiccated regions

Kyle Langan, 2025

Dry winds

If you’ve ever lived in a place prone to wildfires, the sounds of strong wind absent rain may keep you up at night.

Scenario: Record-breaking snow water contents in the winter…

Those living in California probably experienced or at least heard about the epic skiing conditions at Mammoth mountain in early 2023.

That type of 1 in 100+ year precipitation grows vegetation intensely and increases the total amount of combustible material, or fuel load. After the intense precipitation, then growth, a period of severe drought conditions goes on for 2 years.

During the prolonged drought, a storm develops offshore, paired with a high pressure center, which can bring high-velocity winds. Hot, dry winds are stressors for areas like British Columbia, the Southwestern U.S., and Australia. So, why should Western Canadians, Californians and Australians read this essay? Risk mitigation. One of those readers’ priorities is transferring risk of fire to an insurer. Caution, however: property owner may find that purchasing fire insurance through brother-in-law-State-Farm-agent may present issues at the time of the fire and ensuing insurance claim payout. And sadly for purchasers, they can’t buy more fire insurance once the building starts burning.

So, you can’t predict a particular year that would have major wildfires. Purchasers must approach insurance like a yearly, monthly or even daily mitigation strategy. This means if today you buy $500,000 of new furniture, the first person you should brag about it to is your insurance broker. The broker will initiate a change with their underwriter partner and you will pay some additional premium through an endorsement to the policy. But the insurance is an expense until it’s not.

Tohoku

For example, if someone bought earthquake insurance for a commercial building, an earthquake insurance expert will set the purchaser up with a contract that they could buy for 500 years in a row, and if there were zero earthquakes until the 501st year, the insurance contract still would have been worth it, to be indemnified back to whole, based on the benefit of the insurance coverage versus the cost (premium) of the risk transfer. Insurance should be a fraction of a penny, or a penny at the most. That is, the payoff is 100-1. How is the insurance impacting your portfolio during a wind threat? The question I ask myself before purchasing insurance is: Am I better off because of it? Will this help me or make me worse off? An example of insurance likely hurting you is buying collision coverage for $12,000 in annual premium on a car that is worth $11,000. After only 1 year, the insurance is now hurting you, and alternative options should be considered by the purchaser (extreme example: in most cases, this is not how the cost takes shape).

A better example for a payoff 100-1 or greater is going back to the earthquake example. If the replacement cost valuation of a commercial building is $30,000,000, that is the building’s exposure level. If the building suffered a catastrophic loss from a Tohoku-like earthquake, the stakeholder’s successful risk transfer will prove to be true mitigation at the time of the loss. An annual premium of $300,000 would be the minimum standard for a valid earthquake insurance solution. Except maybe Goldman Sachs, most of us probably do not have a time horizon for risk mitigation more than 100 years.

However, naturally, we would love an even better cost-benefit. So, if $60,000 in annual premium? Example of a 500-1 payoff before considering the deductible.

Stressor: Gusty conditions paired with low humidity levels

Santa Ana Season starts in October, on average, and goes through January, sometimes getting into the start of February. [2] Even in winter time, CA can remain dry, windy, and sometimes hot. On their SoundCloud podcast, Paul Pastelok and Joe Lundberg provide continuous guidance for concern of winds lining up for an offshore presence. [3]

Lightning can naturally ignite fires (ex: August 2020 California lightning siege. Santa Ana Winds can then fan flames of blazes and cause them to evolve rapidly into massive wildfires. However, nearly 90% of fires are caused by humans in some way (ex: electricity power lines), and due to this fact, predicting wildfire tolls and acreage is very difficult. [8]

The January 2025 conditions in California resembled the conditions leading up to the 1980 South Australian bushfires: Late February 1980 saw a virtually rainless summer, parlayed with a very wet spring in 1979 prior to the drought conditions. Then 3 years later, February 16th, 1983 was a disaster in South Australia — half a million acres or 2,080 km2  burned, killing 75 people. [9]

Areas that need strategic preparation

Western Canada.

The interior Northwest and the northern Rockies face wildfire risk: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Northern California and northern Nevada may confront exposures because fires are always reasonably expected in times like June or the first half of July. However, this “region’s peak of wildfire activity” is usually July into early September.” [10] Many of these areas likely already have scheduled “prescribed burns,” or intentional power outages, especially in conditions of severe drought and extreme weather like Australia can experience.

New Jersey forests.

The Florida Peninsula can experience brush fires in the spring with any drier-than-average conditions. [11]

Alaska has led the country in wildfire activity in past years, with nearly twice the amount of land in Delaware burned in 2022 from wildfires. However, a fire season is more defined on the impact to the public and not by the acreage burned, according to Pastelok. There are no better examples of this sentiment than the Lahaina fire in 2023 or the 2018 wildfire season when the Camp Fire killed 85 people in Paradise, CA.

References

Danielle, M. (2025, January 13). Death toll climbs to 24 and thousands of structures destroyed in California wildfires. Palisades Fire in California rages out of control. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/palisades-fire-in-california-rages-out-of-control/1731028

Glenny, A. (2025, January 13). Intense Santa Ana winds to resume early this week around Los Angeles. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/intense-santa-ana-winds-to-resume-early-this-week-around-los-angeles/1732922

[1-3]

Going Long With Paul and Joe

[2, 6-8]

Lada, B. (2023, April 12). AccuWeather’s 2023 US wildfire forecast. Retrieved from https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2023-us-wildfire-forecast

[9]

“About Ash Wednesday”. Country Fire Authority Victoria, Australia. Archived from the original on 23 March 2008.

Bureau of Meteorology. “Climate Education: Ash Wednesday, February 1983”. Australian Government. Archived from the original on 8 August 2013. 

[10-11]

Term of the week: Fuel load. interfire.org. Retrieved from https://www.interfire.org/

Commercial Wildfire Checklist

in , , , , , , ,

Knowing what to do in the case of a wildfire is just as important for Businesses as it is for Homeowners. Having the process of what to do Before, During, and After a wildfire is an important tool for Businesses that are both Large and Small. Here is a checklist for business owners to reference to see what should be done before, during and after a wildfire.

At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure that your Business is protected from the devastation that can take place during wildfire season. To speak with a member of the Conrey Team, call (877) 450-1872 or contact us and experience The Conrey Difference for yourself.

Preparing for Wildfires

in , , , , , , , ,

Each year wildfire season is continuing to get worse. Wildfires devastate large areas of land and in some instances can be very hard for Firefighters to contain. This video includes six tips to help you stay safe and protect your property during wildfire season.

At Conrey Insurance we want to ensure that you are protected from the devastation that can take place during wildfire season. To speak with a member of the Conrey Team, call (877) 450-1872 or contact us and experience The Conrey Difference for yourself.