When is wind most nerve-wracking?
Tri Phan, Kyle Langan
2025
“Anytime you have the winds coming with no rain, it’s very nerve-wracking.”
– Cal Fire Capt. Matt McKenzie (referencing Paradise, CA)
Traits of wildfires, urban conflagrations
Uncertainty
When will the next wildfire in California happen?
Gains from stressors
A spark, a bolt of lightning, a gust of wind, a heat wave
Can cause chaos
Loss of life, property
Can cause disorder, turmoil
Response may be uncoordinated.
Variability
Temperature.
Imperfect, incomplete knowledge
Precise locations of future wildfire starting points and ensuing paths
Randomness
Wind, heat, humidity levels
Chance
The likelihood of a wildfire is unknown. Preventing forest fires from taking place ‘to be safe’ worsens the big one. [1]
Time
Wildfires may benefit from time, and grow with a passing day; the Chinchaga Fire burned from June to October.
Volatility
Example: California has hot, dry winds; when these winds are combined with loaded fuels, the culmination is an environment that resembles Australia’s bushfire-prone landscape. Winters’ precipitation might be fun for skiers and snowboarders in Mammoth, who probably remember the white 2022-2023 season vividly. However, these snow-water content levels lead to intense vegetation growth, resulting in more fuel for fire to burn later. High fuel loads for Santa Ana Wind Season (October to February) might keep a Californian up and night. The Diablo Wind Season runs similar course: Fall to Spring.
Ember Awareness
Direct flames: Actual flame coming into direct contact with a building/combustible material. [2]
*Airborne embers: Flaming airborne embers can travel more than a mile from an active wildfire. More than half of wildland interface home ignitions are from flaming embers landing on roofs/objects. [3]
Radiant heat: A wildfire can raise the temperature of nearby combustible materials to the point of ignition. [4]
*An adjacent forest could not burn, while a home does.
LAFD Perspective
In California, The Station Fire on the slopes of Mount Wilson is one of many examples — there are more areas prone to fire in Southern California than not. An exhaustive list of fire-prone areas would be quite long. But what to do in the event of a wildfire? Blake Robbins spent 16 years as a firefighter paramedic. He fought The Station Fire. Currently, he is a Fire Marshall for LAX. Blake saw the beginning and end of life, as 911 emergencies integrate LA firefighters with EMT/Paramedic operations: LAFD’s responses may range from wildfires, to delivering babies, to responses of overdoses. Mr. Robbins cycled through areas needing mitigation: Ventura, Elysian Park, Griffith Park, Trabuco Canyon, Laguna Canyon. He highlighted Ventura first but noted that Elysian and Griffith parks experience the highest frequency he saw.
Don’t be optimistic
Blake put it simply: In the event of a wildfire, don’t sit in place and don’t be optimistic. He also noted the following: Listen to evacuation orders; have an exit plan (strategy to GO without second guesses); then have a backup plan. He mentioned that winds can change severely and rapidly. A fire can benefit from this randomness.
Naive intervention
There is investment on fire suppression via air fleet – it is a small portion of the budget, less than 5%. But this funding is like Cal Fire preparing as if nature’s fires are a warzone enemy to tactically intervene and suppress. Instead, a more effective strategy is defensible space construction and lessened fragility in the way communities prepare. This may include not re-building in places that keep burning. “This area has burned over and over again and maybe we shouldn’t have [houses] there.” – Bettina Boxall.
Boxall is like a lighthouse, guiding us away from a rocky shore – a shore sometimes lacking reason and practicality on this matter. She also said: “A fire-industrial complex has developed, funneling taxpayer money to private businesses that provide federal firefighters with an astounding array of often very expensive services. My colleague and I were also struck by the degree to which politics plays a role in firefighting. We documented a number of instances in which commanders called in costly aircraft at the behest of politicians – when the commanders knew the tankers or helicopters would not be effective.” – Bettina Boxall, 2009 [5]. Conversely, the defensible space construction strategy is working quite well.
Consider this need to “do something.” [6]
Communication: “Red Flag Warning”
National Weather Services’ Red Flag Warnings indicate warm temperatures, very low humidities, and stronger winds, that can combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger.
Some thought Alberta’s blaze was the “result of an atomic war,” or “the end of the world”
Ed Struzik told a story of a Western Canada wildfire so monstrous that the “thickness of the smoke led some people in Ontario to believe that an atomic bomb had exploded and that the western world was at war.” [7] Toronto had to turn on street lights at noon; Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Fort Erie and New York turned lights on at baseball stadiums to illuminate mid-afternoon ball games in the Summer of 1950. [8] There was heat so intense in spots that it changes the chemistry of the soil to the point where trees did not regenerate. [9]
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Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM
Kyle Langan
References
[1] Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile. Random House.
[2-4] Smith, Ed, Sistare, Sonya. (2009) “Be Ember Aware!”. University of Nevada, Reno. <https://naes.agnt.unr.edu/PMS/Pubs/1510_2005_89.pdf>
[5] Bettina Boxall ’74 receives Pulitzer prize – the honors college – university of Maine. The Honors College. (2009, August 26). https://honors.umaine.edu/2009/08/26/bettina-boxall-74-receives-pulitzer/
[6] Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile. Random House.
[7-9] Struzik, Ed. (2011, May 22). “1950 monster fire burned its way into history.” edmontonjournal.com
