Darkness at Midday

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Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM, Kyle Langan, 2025

Traits of wildfire, urban conflagrations

Uncertainty

When will the next wildfire in California happen?

Gains from stressors

A spark, a bolt of lightning, a gust of wind, a heat wave

Can cause chaos

Loss of life, property

Can cause disorder, turmoil

Response may be uncoordinated.

Variability

Temperature; heat so intense in spots that it changes the chemistry of the soil to the point where trees do not regenerate. [1]

Imperfect, incomplete knowledge

Precise locations of future wildfire starting points and ensuing paths

Randomness

Wind, heat, humidity levels

Chance

The likelihood of a wildfire is unknown. Preventing forest fires from taking place ‘to be safe’ worsens the big one. [2]

Time

Wildfires may benefit from time, and get stronger with a passing day. Ex: 1950 blaze in British Columbia burned for 222 days. [3]

Volatility

Example: California has hot, dry winds; when these winds are combined with loaded fuels, the culmination is an environment that resembles Australia’s bushfire-prone landscape. In CA, winters with deep snowpacks can grow the total amount of combustible material, also known as fuel load. [4] Winters’ precipitation may be fun for skiers and snowboarders in Mammoth, who probably remember the 2022-2023 season vividly. However, these snow-water content levels can act as ammunition for intense vegetation growth during the springs and summers, resulting in more fuel for fires later. Santa Ana Wind Season: October to February. Diablo Wind Season runs similar course: ~ Fall to Spring.

How Wildfires Search and Destroy 

Ways wildfires run amok and cause turmoil:

Direct flames: Actual flame coming into direct contact with a building/combustible material. (Smith, 2009)

*Airborne embers: Flaming airborne embers can travel more than a mile from an active wildfire. More than half of wildland interface home ignitions are from flaming embers landing on roofs/objects. (Smith, 2009)

Radiant heat: A wildfire can raise the temperature of nearby combustible materials to the point of ignition. (Smith, 2009)

*An adjacent forest could not burn, while a home does.

Recommended Actions:

#1 Create a wildfire evacuation plan and train employees/inhabitants/family members how to use fire extinguishers

#2 Review and distribute a disaster communication plan

#3 Create and maintain a supply list

#4 Plan how property owners can restore critical operations during unplanned disruption in services

#5 Protect property by creating cleared zones that provide less fuel sources for the fire to spread

#6 Clean off the roof and gutters to minimize the risk of ignition

#7 Back up data to the internet cloud or an offsite drive

#8 Review Insurance coverage

First Published May 12, 2023 by Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM

LAFD Perspective

In California, The Station Fire on the slopes of Mount Wilson one of many examples — there are more areas prone to fire in Southern California than not. A exhaustive list of fire-prone areas would be redundant. Chances are that if you are near an area prone to wildfires, you already know it. But what to do in the event of a wildfire? To gain perspective, I interviewed Blake Robbins, of the LAFD — he spent 16 years as a firefighter paramedic. He fought The Station Fire. Currently, he is Fire Marshall for LAX.

Blake saw the beginning and end of life, as 911 emergencies integrate LA firefighters with EMT/Paramedic operations: LAFD’s responses may range from wildfires to delivering babies to responses of overdoses.

We already agreed that a list of fire prone areas in the Los Angeles area is redundant, though Mr. Robbins still kindly cycled through areas needing mitigation: Ventura, Elysian Park, Griffith Park, Trabuco Canyon, Laguna Canyon. He highlighted Ventura first but noted that Elysian and Griffith parks experience the highest frequency he saw.

Don’t be optimistic

Blake put it simply: In the event of a wildfire, don’t sit in place and don’t be optimistic. He also noted the following: Listen to evacuation orders; have an exit plan (strategy to GO without second guesses); then have a backup plan; finally, winds can change.*

*uncertainty, randomness

Communication: “Red Flag Warning”

National Weather Services’ Red Flag Warnings indicate warm temperatures, very low humidities, and stronger winds, that can combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger.

Wildfire Zones in Western U.S.

The interior Northwest, northern Rockies and Alaska can all face wildfire potential; these areas need strategic preparation. [5]

Some thought Alberta’s blaze was the “result of an atomic war,” or “the end of the world”

Ed Struzik told a story of a Western Canada wildfire so monstrous that the “thickness of the smoke led some people in Ontario to believe that an atomic bomb had exploded and that the western world was at war.” [6] Toronto had to turn on street lights at noon; Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Fort Erie and New York turned lights on at baseball stadiums to illuminate mid-afternoon ball games in the Summer of 1950. [7]

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Written 2023 – 2025 by

Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM

Kyle Langan

References

APA

Myslivy, Jennifer. (2022, July 14) “BLM AND MAVERIK PARTNER TO PREVENT WILDFIRES.” <https://www.blm.gov/blog/2022-07-14/blm-and-maverik-partner-prevent-wildfires>

Smith, Ed, Sistare, Sonya. (2009) “Be Ember Aware!”. University of Nevada, Reno. <https://naes.agnt.unr.edu/PMS/Pubs/1510_2005_89.pdf>

Chicago

[1, 3, 6-7]

Struzik, Ed. (2011, May 22). “1950 monster fire burned its way into history.” edmontonjournal.com

[2]

Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile. Random House.

[4]

Term of the week: Fuel load. interfire.org. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.interfire.org/

[5]

Lada, B. (2023, April 12). AccuWeather’s 2023 US wildfire forecast. Retrieved from https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2023-us-wildfire-forecast/1510132ntonjournal.com