When is wind most nerve-wracking?
“Anytime you have the winds coming with no rain, it’s very nerve-wracking.”
– Cal Fire Capt. Matt McKenzie (referencing Paradise, CA)
Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM, Kyle Langan
2025
Traits of wildfires, urban conflagrations
Uncertainty
When will the next wildfire in California happen?
Gains from stressors
A spark, a bolt of lightning, a gust of wind, a heat wave
Can cause chaos
Loss of life, property
Can cause disorder, turmoil
Response may be uncoordinated.
Variability
Temperature; heat so intense in spots that it changes the chemistry of the soil to the point where trees do not regenerate. [1]
Imperfect, incomplete knowledge
Precise locations of future wildfire starting points and ensuing paths
Randomness
Wind, heat, humidity levels
Chance
The likelihood of a wildfire is unknown. Preventing forest fires from taking place ‘to be safe’ worsens the big one. [2]
Time
Wildfires may benefit from time, and get stronger with a passing day. Ex: 1950 blaze in British Columbia burned for 222 days. [3]
Volatility
Example: California has hot, dry winds; when these winds are combined with loaded fuels, the culmination is an environment that resembles Australia’s bushfire-prone landscape. Winters’ precipitation may be fun for skiers and snowboarders in Mammoth, who probably remember the white 2022-2023 season vividly. However, these snow-water content levels loaded the ammunition of intense vegetation growth during the springs and summers, resulting in more fuel for fires later (the gun). High fuel load for Santa Ana Wind Season (October to February) might keep a Californian up and night. Diablo Wind Season runs similar course: ~ Fall to Spring.
Ember Awareness
Direct flames: Actual flame coming into direct contact with a building/combustible material. (Smith, 2009)
*Airborne embers: Flaming airborne embers can travel more than a mile from an active wildfire. More than half of wildland interface home ignitions are from flaming embers landing on roofs/objects. (Smith, 2009)
Radiant heat: A wildfire can raise the temperature of nearby combustible materials to the point of ignition. (Smith, 2009)
*An adjacent forest could not burn, while a home does.
First Published May, 2023 by Tri Phan (CPCU, ARM)
LAFD Perspective
In California, The Station Fire on the slopes of Mount Wilson one of many examples — there are more areas prone to fire in Southern California than not. A exhaustive list of fire-prone areas would be redundant. Chances are that if you are near an area prone to wildfires, you already know it. But what to do in the event of a wildfire? To gain perspective, I interviewed Blake Robbins, of the LAFD — he spent 16 years as a firefighter paramedic. He fought The Station Fire. Currently, he is Fire Marshall for LAX.
Blake saw the beginning and end of life, as 911 emergencies integrate LA firefighters with EMT/Paramedic operations: LAFD’s responses may range from wildfires to delivering babies to responses of overdoses.
Mr. Robbins still kindly cycled through areas needing mitigation: Ventura, Elysian Park, Griffith Park, Trabuco Canyon, Laguna Canyon. He highlighted Ventura first but noted that Elysian and Griffith parks experience the highest frequency he saw.
Don’t be optimistic
Blake put it simply: In the event of a wildfire, don’t sit in place and don’t be optimistic. He also noted the following: Listen to evacuation orders; have an exit plan (strategy to GO without second guesses); then have a backup plan; finally, winds can change.*
*uncertainty, randomness
Communication: “Red Flag Warning”
National Weather Services’ Red Flag Warnings indicate warm temperatures, very low humidities, and stronger winds, that can combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger.
There is investment of taxpayer dollars on fire suppression (Air fleet) – it is only roughly 3% funding but Cal Fire is preparing as if nature’s fires are a warzone enemy to tactically intervene and suppress fires. Instead a more effective strategy is defensible space construction and antifragility in the way communities prepare. Naive intervention
Bettina Boxall
“This area has burned over and over again and maybe we shouldn’t have [houses] there.” Fighting wildfires is a cash cow for some. “A fire-industrial complex has developed, funneling taxpayer money to private businesses that provide federal firefighters with an astounding array of often very expensive services. My colleague and I were also struck by the degree to which politics plays a role in firefighting. We documented a number of instances in which commanders called in costly aircraft at the behest of politicians–when the commanders knew the tankers or helicopters would not be effective.” – Bettina Boxall, 2009.
Wildfire Zones in Western U.S.
The interior Northwest, northern Rockies and Alaska can all face wildfire potential; these areas need strategic preparation. [5]
Some thought Alberta’s blaze was the “result of an atomic war,” or “the end of the world”
Ed Struzik told a story of a Western Canada wildfire so monstrous that the “thickness of the smoke led some people in Ontario to believe that an atomic bomb had exploded and that the western world was at war.” [6] Toronto had to turn on street lights at noon; Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Fort Erie and New York turned lights on at baseball stadiums to illuminate mid-afternoon ball games in the Summer of 1950. [7]
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Written 2023 – 2025 by
Tri Phan, CPCU, ARM
Kyle Langan
References
APA
Myslivy, Jennifer. (2022, July 14) “BLM AND MAVERIK PARTNER TO PREVENT WILDFIRES.” <https://www.blm.gov/blog/2022-07-14/blm-and-maverik-partner-prevent-wildfires>
Smith, Ed, Sistare, Sonya. (2009) “Be Ember Aware!”. University of Nevada, Reno. <https://naes.agnt.unr.edu/PMS/Pubs/1510_2005_89.pdf>
Chicago
[1, 3, 6-7]
Struzik, Ed. (2011, May 22). “1950 monster fire burned its way into history.” edmontonjournal.com
[2]
Taleb, N. N. (2012). Antifragile. Random House.
[4]
Bettina Boxall ’74 receives Pulitzer prize – the honors college – university of Maine. The Honors College. (2009, August 26). https://honors.umaine.edu/2009/08/26/bettina-boxall-74-receives-pulitzer/
Los Angeles Times. (2017, December 28). An explosive wildfire season drives firefighting costs to record levels. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-wildfire-costs-20171228-story.html
Term of the week: Fuel load. interfire.org. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.interfire.org/
[5]
Lada, B. (2023, April 12). AccuWeather’s 2023 US wildfire forecast. Retrieved from https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2023-us-wildfire-forecast/1510132ntonjournal.com